A Realistic Third Party Presidential Bid Isn't in the Cards

Donald Trump has threatened on numerous occasions to run as a third party candidate if he feels the Republicans aren't fair with him, but if he doesn't have the magic 1,237 number after the final primary on June 7th he'll have to decide whether he thinks they will before the convention. The reason is ballot access. The Republican convention takes place July 18-21 in Cleveland, but many states have filing deadlines for third party Presidential candidates that are before those dates. Those states are listed as follows.

Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina and Texas.

That's 143 electoral votes that Trump would not have access to right out of the gate unless he chose before the convention. What's worse for him is Texas' deadline is almost a month before the primaries are even over on May 9th. So if he waited until the Primaries were over he would be giving up the biggest prize a right wing candidate can realistically hope to win before he even starts, 38 electoral votes off the table. I suppose he could file there before the deadline but Cruz and Kasich would hammer him on it with Republican voters.

On the Democratic side many people, I think unwisely, are asking Bernie Sanders to run as an Independent if he doesn't win, however Sanders would face the same problems. I personally believe that if he loses the nomination he will support Secretary Clinton and I also believe that may be the right thing to do. On the other hand maybe America needs 4 years of a President Trump or a President Cruz to wake up and stop supporting third way candidates such as Secretary Clinton, but I'd rather seem them get it right the first time and nominate Senator Sanders. Finally, as I wrote earlier a third party candidate would likely result in a Republican President anyway because if no candidate can get to a majority of the electoral college (270) the President is chosen by the U.S. House of Representatives which due to Gerrymandering is almost certain to remain in Republican hands until at least 2022.