Sunday, March 20, 2016

Yet Another Reason Democrats May Want To Pump The Brakes On Hillary

It's been reported by the New York Times that the Republican establishment is seriously considering supporting a third party candidate such as Tom Coburn or Rick Perry if Trump makes it to 1237 delegates and locks up the Republican nomination.

At first blush this may sound fantastic to those on the left, because it sounds like the right will split their vote pretty much guaranteeing we win the White House. But if you look deeper into it you see it may actually do the opposite, because of one huge advantage the Republicans have: The U.S. House of Representatives.

All of us Bernie supporters know that he is just killing Secretary Clinton among independents, which is why he generally does much better in open primaries than in closed ones. So lets posit for a moment that Independents would also shun the Secretary in the general. Trump does well with them so he'd take them by a decent margin and he'd also take the far right vote and the anti establishment vote. Secretary Clinton would take the Democratic vote but not those farther on the left and this third party candidate would take the center right and moderate right.

What happens then? No candidate gets to 270 electoral votes, and then the incoming House of Representatives chooses the next President, just like in 1824. We all know how the Republicans have rigged the House with Gerrymandering so they, barring a miracle, will have control of it until at least 2022 when the next round of post census voting takes place. If the Democrats don't get their down ticket game on soon however it could be 2032, but that's a topic for another day.

The 2016 election gets crazier because the Democrats are widely expected to take back control of the Senate this year. Why would that matter? Because the new Senate chooses the Vice President. So you could have a President Coburn or a President Perry with whoever Secretary Clinton's running mate would be as Vice President.

Of course, all of this is fixed by simply nominating Bernie Sanders, he would take the Democratic and the Independent vote and the blue wall would remain intact. :)

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